Topological properties of reconstructed credit networks and banking systemic risk

Financial bipartite networks provide channels for contagion risks and their topological properties determine financial stability. We enrich the bipartite network reconstruction methods proposed by Ramadiah et al. (2020) and extend them to the Chinese banking system. By comparing the reproducibility of the real credit market and the corresponding systemic risk, the impact of topological properties for different reconstructed bipartite networks on financial stability is analyzed. The empirical evidence shows that network reconstruction methods based on maximum entropy ensembles capture more properties in the real credit network. It also highlights that the different systemic risk level is mainly contributed by the topological properties based on common exposures. These analyses for topological properties provide regulatory insights for systemic risk prevention. It shows that reducing credit similarity across banks while increasing credit diversification in different sectors helps to control systemic risk. The results imply the possibility of increasing financial stability through the macro-regulation of the credit market structure.     

Non-Gaussian models for CoVaR estimation

In this paper we show how to obtain estimates of CoVaR based on models that take into consideration some stylized facts about multivariate financial time series of equity log returns: heavy tails, negative skew, asymmetric dependence, and volatility clustering. While the volatility clustering effect is captured by AR-GARCH dynamics of the Glosten-Jagannathan-Runkle (GJR) type, the other stylized facts are explained by non-Gaussian multivariate models and copula functions. We compare the different models in the period from January 2007 to March 2020. Our empirical study conducted on a sample of listed banks in the euro area confirms that, in measuring CoVaR, it is important to capture the time-varying dynamics of the volatility. Additionally, a correct assessment of the heaviness of the tails and of the dependence structure is needed in the evaluation of this systemic risk measure.     

Non-executive directorship importance and takeover hostility: Australian evidence

This study investigates the importance of the target firm directorship to target firm non-executive directors during takeovers. Using Australian data and a size-based measure of directorship importance, we find a positive association between takeover hostility and directorship importance after controlling for takeover premiums and target firm size. Further analysis reveals that directorship importance leads to a greater likelihood of offer price revisions following initial rejection of a takeover bid, but not the likelihood of bid success. Our findings are consistent with target firm non-executive directors exhibiting self-serving behaviour at directorships which they consider more important to their reputation.     

Stock–bond dependence and flight to/from quality

This paper investigates the stock–bond dependence structure using a dependence-switching copula model. The model allows stock–bond dependence to switch between positive dependence regimes (contagions or crashes of the two markets during downturns or booms in both markets during upturns) and negative dependence regimes (flight-to-quality from stock markets to bond markets or flight-from-quality from bond markets to stock markets). Using data from four developed markets including the US, Canada, Germany, and France for the period between January 1985 and August 2022, we find that the within-country stock–bond (extreme) dependence could be both positive and negative. In the positive dependence regimes, the stock–bond dependence is asymmetric with stronger left tail dependence than the right tail dependence, giving evidence of a higher likelihood of joint stock–bond market crashes or contagions during market downturns than the collective stock–bond market booms. Under the negative dependence regimes, we find both flight-from-quality and flight-to-quality, with flight-to-quality being more dominant in the North American markets while flight-from-quality is more prominent in the European markets. Further, the dependence switches between positive and negative regimes over time. Moreover, the dependence is mainly in the positive regimes before 2000 while mostly in the negative regimes after that, indicating contagions mostly before 2000 and flights afterwards. Further, the dependence switches between positive and negative regimes around financial crises and the COVID-19 pandemic. These results greatly enrich the findings in the existing literature on the co-movements of stock–bond markets and are important for risk management and asset pricing.     

It may be urgent,but is it important? A look at how employees evaluate their emails

This paper presents the results of a study designed to identify the cues employees use to identify an email as important and/or urgent. Taking an emic perspective, a qualitative research methodology is used to analyze interview responses from knowledge workers. Our findings support the notion that employees use strategies similar to those encapsulated in Mitchell et al.’s (1997) operationalization of stakeholder salience when evaluating an email's importance and/or urgency. Results from this study can be used to design email policies to support knowledge worker performance.     

Herbal Pharma Inc.: Conducting an Effective Group Audit*

As the relative weight of global economic activity continues to shift toward non-OECD countries (OECD 2018), audit firms are more likely to encounter clients with significant business operations in foreign jurisdictions. The associated need to engage and oversee local component auditors in these jurisdictions can lead to challenges arising from different business cultures and the resulting intra-audit miscommunications. Audit deficiencies related to these challenges have been detected by regulators (PCAOB 2011, 2010; CPAB 2012, 2015). Standard setters such as the IAASB and the Auditing and Assurance Standards Board (AASB) have responded by issuing an exposure draft proposing revisions to ISA 600 (IAASB 2020) and CAS 600 (AASB 2020) to strengthen the auditor's approach and provide enhanced guidance to practitioners. In light of this evolving area of assurance, this case was developed to deepen students' understanding of both group and component audits in an international context. The case takes the perspective of the group auditor and features an audit senior in a specialized role overseeing the component audit of a client's increasingly material Chinese subsidiary. Deficiencies in the prior year component audit, along with a change in the component auditor, further underlines the importance of robust risk analysis for the upcoming engagement.     

Contagion effect of systemic risk among industry sectors in China’s stock market

This paper constructs a tail event driven network to investigate the interdependence of tail risks among industries in the Chinese stock market from 2014 to 2019, and identifies systemically important industries that have made significant contributions to risk contagion by systemic risk decomposition technique. The empirical results suggest strong linkages among industry sectors. The risk profiles of certain industries under close supply–demand relationships are positively correlated, whereas the financial industry, particularly banking, proves to be the principal risk diversifier in the network, with the household appliance, food and drink industries performing likewise an important role in risk diversification. Based on the TENQR model, further study on additional information provided by the industrial chain structure demonstrates that the upstream industry dominates the spread of risks under extreme market conditions. Our findings are of constructive significance to the anticipative introduction of corresponding policies by regulatory authorities, and are also instructive to the investors’ allocation of assets.     

Bank herding and systemic risk

Bank herding behavior is often hypothesized to increase systemic risk, but the actual effect is unclear ex-ante from the theory and unknown ex-post from the data. We expand the literature on this topic in several dimensions – posing alternative hypotheses regarding the effects of herding in asset, liability, and off-balance sheet portfolios; developing a novel set of bank-specific, time-varying measures of herding in these portfolios; and empirically testing the relations between bank herding for all three portfolios and bank systemic risk contributions. We find nuanced empirical results that differ by portfolio, bank size class, and periods before versus after TARP.     

Systemic risk in the Chinese financial system: A panel Granger causality analysis

In this paper, we investigate China’s changing financial interconnectedness via the presence of Granger-causality between firm level factors (Leverage, Market To Book Value and Returns) and systemic risk measures ($\Delta$CoVaR, MES, and SRISK ). The analysis is based on 161 Chinese financial intermediaries (14 Traditional Banks, 16 Finance Services, 131 Real Estate Finance Developers) continuously listed over the period 2007:1–2021:1. We find that, in addition to traditional banks, finance companies and real estate finance developers pose systemic threats to the Chinese financial system, in particular during the Global Financial Crisis and the 2015 Chinese stock crash. Finally, the outbreak of COVID-19 pandemic has put under strain the Chinese financial system, in particular the finance services.     

Bank capital shortfall in the euro area

We quantify the bank capital shortfall that results from a financial crisis by estimating a macro-finance dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that captures the interactions between the financial and real sectors of the euro-area economy. The introduction of both deposit and shadow banks captures several characteristics of the banking system and reveals a financial amplification mechanism. By using a combination of a large positive risk shock and a large negative investment shock, we show that a crisis similar to that observed in 2008 would generate a bank capital shortfall between 2.2% and 3% of euro-area GDP, which corresponds to approximately 207–282 billion euros.